Dairy futures slide across regions

The thirty-sixth trading week of 2025 was characterized by persistent weakness across key global dairy markets, with notable declines observed in New Zealand, the United States, and Europe.At the CME, dairy futures maintained a clear downward trajectory. Skim Milk Powder (SMP), butter, Class IV milk, and block cheese all registered declines across their contracts. Whey futures also weakened, with most contracts moving lower, although the front contract (C1) managed a modest increase. Class III milk futures followed a similar pattern, with broad declines except for the sixth contract (C6), which posted a gain. CONTRACT CME Product Month 25/Aug 29/Aug ∆ ∆ % SMP August $2.831 $2.822 ↓ -0,31% September $2.795 $2.790 ↓ -0,18% October $2.778 $2.750 ↓ -0,99% November $2.761 $2.723 ↓ -1,40% December $2.756 $2.712 ↓ -1,60% January $2.744 $2.717 ↓ -1,00% Average $2.778 $2.752 ↓ -0,91% Butter August $5.445 $5.443 ↓ -0,04% September $5.206 $4.927 ↓ -5,36% October $5.281 $5.026 ↓ -4,81% November $5.321 $5.082 ↓ -4,50% December $5.291 $5.082 ↓ -3,96% January $5.313 $5.082 ↓ -4,36% Average $5.309 $5.107 ↓ -3,81% Whey August $1.276 $1.276 ↑ 0,00% September $1.281 $1.263 ↓ -1,42% October $1.279 $1.279 ↓ 0,00% November $1.235 $1.257 ↓ 1,74% December $1.201 $1.202 ↓ 0,05% January $1.146 $1.199 ↓ 4,62% Average $1.236 $1.246 ↓ 0,77% Block cheese August $3.891 $3.869 ↓ -0,57% September $4.142 $4.078 ↓ -1,54% October $4.026 $4.015 ↓ -0,27% November $4.010 $3.977 ↓ -0,82% December $3.959 $3.926 ↓ -0,84% January $3.946 $3.924 ↓ -0,56% Average $3.996 $3.965 ↓ -0,77% Milk Class III August $38,34 $38,07 ↓ -0,69% September $40,63 $39,93 ↓ -1,74% October $39,57 $39,33 ↓ -0,61% November $39,31 $38,84 ↓ -1,18% December $39,22 $38,91 ↓ -0,79% January $38,60 $38,65 ↑ 0,11% Average $39,28 $38,96 ↓ -0,82% Milk Class IV August $40,78 $40,72 ↓ -0,16% September $39,53 $38,25 ↓ -3,23% October $39,68 $38,21 ↓ -3,72% November $39,59 $38,32 ↓ -3,23% December $40,01 $38,71 ↓ -3,25% January $40,32 $38,91 ↓ -3,50% Average $39,99 $38,85 ↓ -2,84% The CME spot market also reflected bearish sentiment, recording losses across all commodities. CME Spot market Product 25/Aug 29/Aug ∆ ∆ % Dry Whey $1.257 $1.257 ↔ 0,00% Cheese Blocks $3.957 $3.913 ↓ -1,11% Cheese Barrels $3.880 $3.924 ↑ 1,14% Butter $4.938 $4.508 ↓ -8,71% SMP $2.772 $2.778 ↑ 0,20% Sentiment in the SGX dairy futures market remained cautious following the relative weakness at the most recent Global Dairy Trade auction. SMP, butter, and whole milk powder (WMP) futures all posted declines across their contract periods. Anhydrous milk fat (AMF) also weakened, with every contract moving lower except C6, which held steady. Milk futures produced a more mixed picture: the 2025 contract was unchanged, while the 2026 and 2027 contracts moved lower. SGX Product Month 25/Aug 29/Aug ∆ ∆ % SMP September $2.760 $2.730 ↓ -1,09% October $2.755 $2.715 ↓ -1,45% November $2.760 $2.730 ↓ -1,09% December $2.780 $2.760 ↓ -0,72% January $2.850 $2.810 ↓ -1,40% February $2.855 $2.830 ↓ -0,88% Average $2.793 $2.763 ↓ -1,10% Butter September $6.985 $6.915 ↓ -1,00% October $6.850 $6.750 ↓ -1,46% November $6.850 $6.730 ↓ -1,75% December $6.850 $6.700 ↓ -2,19% January $6.930 $6.759 ↓ -2,47% February $6.960 $6.780 ↓ -2,59% Average $6.904 $6.772 ↓ -1,91% WMP September $3.940 $3.835 ↓ -2,66% October $3.800 $3.715 ↓ -2,24% November $3.770 $3.700 ↓ -1,86% December $3.765 $3.695 ↓ -1,86% January $3.765 $3.700 ↓ -1,73% February $3.775 $3.710 ↓ -1,72% Average $3.803 $3.726 ↓ -2,02% AMF September $7.100 $7.070 ↓ -0,42% October $7.095 $6.980 ↓ -1,62% November $7.090 $6.950 ↓ -1,97% December $7.020 $6.940 ↓ -1,14% January $7.060 $6.960 ↓ -1,42% February $6.950 $6.950 ↔ 0,00% Average $7.053 $6.975 ↓ -1,10% Milk Sept '25 $10,15 $10,15 ↔ 0,00% Sept '26 $10,22 $10,10 ↓ -1,17% Sept '27 $9,63 $9,55 ↓ -0,83% European dairy markets also softened, particularly in SMP, butter, and liquid milk. SMP futures declined across all contract months except C1, which edged higher, and C6, which was unchanged. Butter futures registered declines across the curve, apart from C1, which remained stable. In contrast, whey futures provided a rare positive note, with gains recorded in all contract months except the front contract, which slipped. Liquid milk futures delivered a mixed performance: near-term contracts (C1–C3) rose modestly, suggesting short-term demand, while contracts further along the curve (C4–C6) moved lower. EEX in EUR Product Month 25/Aug 29/Aug ∆ ∆ % SMP September €2.370 €2.377 ↑ 0,30% October €2.443 €2.413 ↓ -1,23% November €2.449 €2.433 ↓ -0,65% December €2.467 €2.448 ↓ -0,77% January €2.478 €2.463 ↓ -0,61% February €2.480 €2.480 ↔ 0,00% Average €2.448 €2.436 ↓ -0,50% Butter September €7.063 €7.063 ↔ 0,00% October €6.900 €6.875 ↓ -0,36% November €6.833 €6.778 ↓ -0,80% December €6.830 €6.754 ↓ -1,11% January €6.739 €6.709 ↓ -0,45% February €6.738 €6.646 ↓ -1,37% Average €6.851 €6.804 ↓ -0,68% Whey September €840 $825 ↓ -1,79% October €900 €910 ↑ 1,11% November €940 €963 ↑ 2,45% December €960 €988 ↑ 2,92% January €980 €1.013 ↑ 3,37% February €1.000 €1.035 ↑ 3,50% Average €937 €956 ↑ 2,03% Liq Milk September €53,23 €53,27 ↑ 0,08% October €52,58 €52,95 ↑ 0,70% November €52,43 €52,47 ↑ 0,08% December €52,24 €52,18 ↓ -0,11% January €52,00 €51,80 ↓ -0,38% February €51,77 €51,53 ↓ -0,46% Average €52,38 €52,37 ↓ -0,02% EEX in USD EEX in USD euro/Dollar 1,1662 1,1720 >> 0,50% Product Month 25/Aug 29/Aug ∆ ∆ % SMP August $2.798 $2.804 ↑ 0,23% September $2.831 $2.808 ↓ -0,80% October $2.848 $2.813 ↓ -1,25% November $2.868 $2.815 ↓ -1,84% December $2.876 $2.816 ↓ -2,08% January $2.876 $2.823 ↓ -1,84% Average $2.849 $2.813 ↓ -1,27% Butter August $7.953 $7.780 ↓ -2,17% September $7.834 $7.608 ↓ -2,89% October $7.801 $7.462 ↓ -4,34% November $7.761 $7.350 ↓ -5,30% December $7.698 $7.238 ↓ -5,98% January $7.655 $7.210 ↓ -5,82% Average $7.784 $7.441 ↓ -4,40% Whey August $1.090 $1.096 ↑ 0,56% September $1.156 $1.163 ↑ 0,56% October $1.177 $1.173 ↓ -0,33% November $1.191 $1.174 ↓ -1,40% December $1.249 $1.174 ↓ -5,99% January $1.179 $1.180 ↑ 0,06% Average $1.174 $1.160 ↓ -1,17% Liq Milk August $61,96 $62,28 ↑ 0,52% September $61,49 $62,13 ↑ 1,03% October $60,99 $61,29 ↑ 0,48% November $60,53 $60,86 ↑ 0,54% December $60,01 $60,32 ↑ 0,52% January $59,69 $59,44 ↓ -0,42% Average $60,78 $61,05 ↑ 0,45% A comparison of 2025 performance against the final trading session of 2024 highlights a pronounced regional divergence. The US and the EU posted the weakest results, with pricing under pressure across major dairy products. An exception was the CME spot call for Cheddar barrels, which improved relative to the end of last year. By contrast, New Zealand emerged as the strongest performer, recording broad-based price gains across commodities, with the sole exception of SMP, which declined. Region Product Change 29/08/'25 VS 27/12/'24 USA CME SMP -9,35% BUTTER -14,93% WHEY -17,98% BLOCK CHEESE -4,25% MILK CLASS III -11,02% MILK CLASS IV -15,83% USA CME SPOT CALL MARKET WHEY -23,24% CHEDDAR BLOCKS -4,63% CHEDDAR BARRELS 1,72% BUTTER -20,40% SMP -9,28% NEW ZEALAND SGX SMP -2,56% BUTTER 7,43% WMP 0,40% AMF 2,45% MILK '25 8,52% MILK '26 7,56% MILK '27 8,52% EU EEX SMP -15,81% BUTTER -11,73% WHEY -6,76% LIQ MILK -9,24%