What is the impact of Trump’s tariff policy on the European frozen fries industry?

U.S. President Donald Trump has announced that the United States will introduce a 20% import tariff on European products. For the potato market, the big question is: what impact will this measure have? Or could it perhaps even create new opportunities?

In recent months, Trump, during his second presidential term, has announced and implemented significant tariffs on multiple countries. Below is an overview of the most important measures:

China: February 2025: Trump imposed an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese goods. China responded with a 15% tariff on coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG), and 10% on crude oil, agricultural machinery, and large-engine vehicles.

Canada and Mexico: March 2025: The U.S. imposed a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico, with the exception of Canadian energy products, which were taxed at 10%. Canada immediately announced retaliatory measures, applying a 25% tariff on $155 billion worth of American goods.

European Union: April 2, 2025: Trump announced a 20% tariff on all EU imports to the U.S. during his "Liberation Day" speech, in which he declared the day as a "statement of economic independence."

United Kingdom: April 3, 2025: The United Kingdom faced a 10% tariff on all exports to the U.S. Although this is lower than for other countries, it still significantly impacts the British economy.

Other Countries: April 2025: Countries such as Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and Japan were hit with tariffs of 46%, 44%, and 24% respectively, also announced during the "Liberation Day" address.

When looking at the trade balance of frozen fries in the United States, it becomes clear that the country imports significantly more frozen fries on a monthly basis than it exports. Roughly speaking, the U.S. imports 2 times more frozen fries than it exports. In Trump’s view, this imbalance must be corrected in order to eliminate the trade deficit.

On the Potato Platform of DCA Market Intelligence, users can access data showing how much frozen fries the U.S. exports and to which countries. In 2024, the U.S. - a major power and the inventor of frozen fries - exported a total of 1.488.712 tons of frozen fries. The main recipients were Japan, Mexico, Philipipines and Canada. Remarkably, the U.S. exports very little frozen fries to Europe (170 ton in 2024)

This morning, April 3, 2025, the U.S. announced a 20% import tariff on European products. Europe currently exports 463.849 tons of frozen fries to the U.S. Should this trade flow be disrupted or halted, the impact would be considerable.

However, Trump’s measure may also open up opportunities for Europe -particularly if a significant share of the U.S. frozen fries exports to Japan and Mexico can be replaced by European fries. These markets are substantially larger than the potential loss from reduced exports to the U.S. If Europe can take over these markets from the U.S., we are looking at a sales potential of 400,000 tons.

Currently, Europe's frozen fries exports to Mexico amount to just under 94,000 tons in 2024, indicating that Mexican buyers are already familiar with European frozen fries. Europe has also been exporting frozen fries to Japan for several years, with volumes ranging between 115,000 tons in 2020 to 193,000 tons in 2023.

Conclusion:
In the short term, the U.S. tariff on European frozen fries may negatively impact sales. However, in markets outside the U.S. where American suppliers currently dominate, Europe may find substantial opportunities to expand its market share.